01 September 2015

"And the roller coaster continues....." Article by Steve Marsten

It’s been another week of nervous markets and even more nervous investors. The week saw the Chinese stock market collapse by more then 17% in three days. It’s a true indication that the Chinese Economy is dealing with fundamental flaws. Though the general stock market plunge should not affect Australian stocks directly, we are more susceptible to the slumping Chinese economy.
On top of the issue of a sluggish China, you have a stock market buoyed by borrowed money to invest and inflate the stock market bubble. All very Storm Financial style and we all know where that left us! Even after the falls on their stockmarket, would you believe they are still over 30% above where they were 12 months ago while our market (the ASX) is down by 3%.
The other issue to consider is the Chinese government has been scrambling to halt the slide in its markets by reducing its interest rates. These now stand at 4.6% compared to Australia’s rate of 2%.
Meanwhile the economy that’s been on the improve is the US. Their market also caught a dose of the Chinese market flu! They fell by 10%. That said the S & P index has been travelling way above its pre GFC peak for about 2 years. This compares to Australia’s market that seems to be restrained and conservative in comparison as we have yet to reach our pre GFC peak.
The USA is also been impacted by the fact that over the last few years their Government has been pumping money into the economy via several quantitative easings. This was brought to halt some months ago and hence a correction to their market was always a possibility. That said their economy still has a reasonably good outlook.
The conclusions we can draw is every few years the markets take a deep breath and correct themselves. It’s expected. It’s part and parcel of the volatility of markets. If your portfolio is exposed to small caps or high risk companies – they tend to be even more volatile. If your portfolio is diversified amongst larger profitable companies then they are likely to recover first and foremost.

 At Sothertons understanding risk is part of anyone’s portfolio management. Markets going up or down should not be a big concern as long as objectives haven’t changed and your portfolio is diversified. To understand more call us on 4972 1300.

No comments:

Post a Comment